Deano’s answer to: “Is the online dating business past its prime?”

Whether it's movies, gambling, oil, health supplements, or online dating, the way to judge maturity is the same – when the Feds decide to regulate it in some fashion. 

While the shady players or bad business practices may never go away, at some point Uncle Sam decides that Halliburton needs to at least pretend to care about the safety of its pipelines, or that compulsive gamblers probably shouldn't be kneecapped behind the Stardust when they lose big. 

Put another way, once you get big enough, taking obvious legal risks for financial gain makes less business sense than providing smooth reliable quarterly results for your investors. 

Other than general Internet and ecommerce rulings, we haven't really seen the federal government go after online dating claims/methodologies/terms of service specifically. There has been a fair bit of private litigation against individual sites for discrimination against gays/lesbians, and there is a general lack of "accessibility" for transgender users outside the adult personals… but for now, dating remains basically on an even regulatory playing field with any other type of online business. 

Which, to me, says that it has room left to grow.

Is the online dating business past its prime?

Deano’s answer to: “Is there a search engine or program available to check multiple dating sites for the same user?”

There is no simple way to search for the same (real) user across multiple dating sites.

The idea that you would want to do this to verify consistency in the user's self-description seems to be working too hard to get an answer that doesn't help you out very much. The basic outcomes of such a search would be the following:

1) User is consistent across profiles, all of which can be found – but may still be lying about their height, marital status, etc. Consistently dishonest is still consistent.

2) User is consistent across findable profiles, but actually has several variant profiles that remain undetected (for example, profiles that change the user's gender, and/or use a significant quantity of falsified data)

3) User is inconsistent across profiles, but for "innocent" reasons – no longer active on a certain site, and profile information has changed since they last logged in (used to be married, now divorced; used to be 100K+ salary, now unemployed). The user themselves may not be aware that their profiles are not up to date – given the time required to craft a profile when joining a site, many users do not regularly update their own profile unless they experience a dramatic change in messages/replies to their messages.

4) User is intentionally inconsistent across profiles, for "targeting" reasons. Many people do not like to read or respond to profiles that are too general, or too accepting of other types of users (the woman willing to date men 18-80, the man willing to date women any distance away). By creating different profiles to target different groups they might be interested in, the user may experience improved results, and meet more compatible people… For example, a bisexual person who lists twice as gay and straight – and would be happy and monogamous in either type of relationship.

The question also implies that once your friend "likes" a profile on a dating site, they start placing expectations/hopes on that person being "the one" before meeting. This is not only dangerous, but highly unlikely to work out statistically. By placing too much energy in a single pairing, your friend risks being disappointed and having to start over – and perhaps eventually burning out on online dating entirely.

The alternative, and the path I would strongly advise, is instead to simply conduct an ongoing search, and not place all your eggs in a single basket. By either actively dating multiple people at once, or at least continuing to make contact with new potentials, your friend can better reduce the risks/pain of meeting a poor match, or having a good online connection simply sputter out after meeting.

Is there a search engine or program available to check multiple dating sites for the same user?

Deano’s answer to: “What is the biggest dating site in America?”

The industry as a whole is very "numbers phobic", in large part due to the potential issues they'd have in accurately marketing the small number of local matches typically exist among the active membership.

Case in point: pre-acquisition (by just a few days, really), OKCupid put out this scathing article about how useless it is to pay for a dating site, and drills down heavily into the numbers:

http://static.izs.me/why-you-sho…

Why does my link not actually go to OKCupid? Well, Match.com bought them, and <poof>, the article disappeared!

Hrm!

Anyway, Long story short, I'd say your friend is right in terms of "active traffic" being in favor of Craigslist… After all, only 5% or less of match.com and eHarmony's respective members are likely active! That said, there's no way to tell how many of the posts on craigslist are real to begin with (the tales of scam/spam/cam ads are never-ending), as well as no way to judge things like number of CL marriages, etc. Oh yeah, and Craig also sells used dishwashers and rents apartments, among many many other things, so there's also no good way to separate out the dating traffic.

Perhaps it's easier to say that, assuming all active dating traffic on all dating sites was real, including craigslist, that the latter site would be far ahead of any of the pay sites in terms of worldwide ad postings.

Still, I've blatantly ignored the other majors, like free site plentyoffish.com, which is reputed to have a pretty large active membership, as well as sites like Zoosk and Tagged with fairly high "buzz" factor (well, at least, last year).

With no one releasing solid verifiable figures on their performance, it's just not really possible to say whether you or your friend are correct. Rather, it's best to say that there really are no actual "dating" sites – all the sites mentioned are simply compatibility matching engines, none of whom track or report statistics on actual dates that happen in the real world. Kinda sad, huh?

What is the biggest dating site in America?

Deano’s answer to: “Why is it Amazon can sell its hard-copy books and deliver to everywhere in the world but not its ebooks?”

Print publishing, like film distribution or the music recording industry, has historically been licensed by territory – sometimes an individual country, but just as often for an entire region (say, South America), even if the region itself represents multiple written/spoken languages.

The Internet operates almost entirely non-territorially in terms of content distribution: this is the first, foremost, and most highly valued quality of the Internet[*].

Unfortunately, this has meant that for the entire history of the Internet, it has operated at cross-purposes with much of the commercial content distribution channels of the world. And it has only been very slowly, as they are dragged kicking and screaming epithets that would make a sailor blush, that these industries have come to the realization that the Internet isn't going away, and cannot be fully controlled.

To address the issue of eBooks specifically, it basically boils down to simple contract negotiation:

Most contracts for the vast majority of books in existence were signed before eBooks had any significant market presence, and as such rights for eBook distribution are largely governed on the publisher's – rather than the author's – preferred terms. Is this sounding a lot like the music industry again? There's a reason for that.

On the other hand, unlike music, which most people are happy to replay over and over, and perhaps even pay for a live event, books are typically read once or twice – and while some authors can command for-pay speaking engagements and appearances, most of the time they are "happy" to tour the country to do readings and signings for free[†] in the hopes that it helps sell another 10-20 copies per city.

So, really, it's a different business in which most authors working with a publisher never receive more than their initial advance against royalties, are generally happier the more involved the publisher is, and are also happy when the publishers place restrictions "in an effort to curb piracy/increase licensing revenues" using the outdated per-region model, since they don't really have another way to bring in cash – besides writing another book. Which is why so few authors don't also have a day/side job per capita compared to 'published' musicians/film directors/television actors/etc.

Anyway, all this boils down to the following: eBooks are a new phenomenon working within an old framework. As new contracts are written, things are (glacially) changing in favor of innovations like "per language" licensing terms for digital content – which is ultimately a benefit to readers in countries that may never get a native, say, Swedish edition of a book that is released in German/English/etc), the source publisher/author (fewer third parties to deal with/sign off on), and even the licensees of really obscure languages – who can now be the "sole world source of the Tamil edition", rather than having to battle it out with… Okay, nevermind. But for really any multi-country language that supports a large enough readership, it's a huge win and can't get here fast enough.

Amazon gets this, and they are totally on our side – much like the various states/localities that are implementing affiliate taxation, it makes things so much more complicated for Amazon that it's easier to pull out than adhere to rules made to prop up pre-Internet economies. They would be overjoyed to offer English language eBooks the world over, just like Apple would kill to be able to sell the J-Pop catalog available to iTunes customers in Japan to all the anime-obsessed otaku back here in the US.

Long story short: it'll happen. But, based on the current pacing, it's easily still a 20 year mission to get it to happen, barring more significant economic disruption (or even environmental concerns over dead-tree book production/distribution) than we have seen to date. Much like digital music, movies, and television, though, I think we'll need to see a greater uptick in either direct consumer demand for such licensing changes (led, or agreed to, by a robust conclave of notable authors), or eBook piracy[ª] that cuts deeply into legal publishers' revenues.

[* Not really, it's actually porn, of course. ]

[† Usually paid for at least in part by the publisher, and again stuffed somewhere in the contract under "author obligations". ]

[ª Due to the overall lower consumption of books compared to other media today, piracy still hasn't really flourished to the same extent – I can, at the snap of my fingers, download a torrent of the soundtrack to "The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas" in minutes, but even finding a listing for a tenth of the bestselling books available for Kindle/iBooks/Kobo/etc is a challenge well beyond me. ]

Why is it Amazon can sell its hard-copy books and deliver to everywhere in the world but not its ebooks?

Deano’s answer to: “What is it like as a male working in a female dominated industry?”

Off the top of my head, the following emotions are strongest:

  • A generalized "a-ha" twinge of how things must so often be for women in traditionally male-dominated roles,
  • A more personally-focused "but… ow" nausea emanating from the general unfairness of the gender-sourced imbalance, and
  • An almost forlorn "dammit" gut-punch that arises from the disparity not only of support or stature within a given industry, but also the ongoing basic differences between male and female behavior that make it so – and as a result make it unlikely that even a world filled solely with equality-minded men and women would significantly change the picture.

There are a whole host of other, more subtle, perhaps even more dangerous undercurrents… But essentially, it's those three that keep rising to the top.

Talking to other men in similar situations, I could also add that such work often carries with it similar burdens for men as male dominated industries do for women:

  • Lower pay
  • At times hostile reactions from other men who don't understand why another man would do such a job when other "manlier" work exists,
  • Similarly hostile reactions from some women, who don't like the idea of men "horning in" on one of the comparatively few fields where women are higher-paid, more appreciated, etc.

Even where money isn't really involved (among the other jobs that qualify for this question, I've had a longish, and mostly-unintentional stint as a stay-at-home dad for a couple years now), general societal attitudes of what's okay for men and women is still well behind the "enlightenment curve", shall we say.

The worst bit is probably all the folks who truly seem to want to be more open-minded about it, but clearly still fall back on very different inherited teachings in terms of how they treat/interact with such a man. This last bit is almost identical to how single people treat the newly married – not exactly shunning them per se, but just assuming they're no longer interested in certain activities or events.

What is it like as a male working in a female dominated industry?